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In the Dec 1993 issue of Surface Mount Technology Magazine, I published an invited article on “Packaging to the Year 2000.” A few years ago, SMT Magazine was taken over by Iconnect007 and is available online.

But my article was published before the days of the internet and was never posted to the web. I just posted a pdf copy on my web site, where you can download a copy.

In a past life, I specialized in semiconductor packaging technology, working in printed circuit fabrication processes, monitoring and control of board fab process, multi chip module technology development and BGA implementation. And I wrote a number of books on interconnect technology.

I wrote this article to paint a picture of where I thought packaging technology would end up in the 21st century, about 7 years out at the time.

I came across it recently when cleaning out some files and was surprised at how timely many of my comments were. Here is a sampling of my comments and predictions, which I think apply just as well today, twenty years later.

“There will be no universal packaging solutions for every customer. Rather the industry will be comprised of niche markets.”

“With such technologies on hand, many of the products we use today- day-timers, maps newspapers, TVs, libraries, video stores- will also become extinct.”

“As dice become peripheral-pad-limited, companies other than IBM will be inclined towards the adoptions of area array pads and flip chip assembly processes to support single and multi chip packages.”

“What is needed is cost-effective evolution of current technologies… Execution rather than creation will be the guiding principle to the year 2000.”

“… two principles will be required to survive:

  • to be successful, vendors must understand the specific constraints of each customer and understand what is of value. There will be a different answer with each customer.
  • The corollary is to be careful when projecting one customer’s reasons for adopting a technology on another’s”

“To understand what is important and worth paying for, is also to understand what is not important and not worth paying for.”

For the entire article, and many others, visit www.beTheSignal.com, and check out the Signal Integrity Library.